In 2003, the first phase of the weekly "gives readers, is an interpretation of the wealth of new perspective — a study on the economic perspective of psychology. This is the 2002 Nobel economics laureate, psychologists Kahneman brought "prospect theory".
Kahneman does Nobel lecture, specifically referring to a Chinese scholar's research results, he is Professor at the University of Chicago business school, Business School Behavioral Science Center Director HSEE Professor. XI research using psychology to Professor of Economics, marketing, decision Science, and other subjects, is this one of the leading scholars in the field.
Currently, Professor at Fudan University and XI European business school. This article is intercepted, the wonderful pieces in his speech. A careful reading, you will find: small personal shopping, corporate risk decision making, national public policy development, and social phenomena on a wide range of wealth, and psychology are inextricably linked.
Looks beautiful in difference — articles on spend more money
To see an XI Professor in 1998 published experimental ice-cream. There are now two cups of Haagen-Dazs ice cream, a person his glass of ice-cream A 7 ounces, 5-ounce Cup, looks almost running over a glass of ice-cream 8 oz B is, but in a 10-ounce Cup, it seems not yet full. Would you like to do an ice Kei shower pay more money?
If people like ice cream, ice-cream 8 oz than 7 ounces, if people like cups, 10-ounce Cup than 5 ounces. But the results indicate that, in the judgment of cases respectively (' comment: that is not the Cup ice cream together, people's daily lives of all these decisions are based on reference information often is not enough), but willing to component less ice cream to pay more money. Experiments show: average, people are willing to spend $ 2.26 7 ounces of ice cream to buy, but just like 1.66 dollars 8 ounces of ice cream.
This correspondence between the Kahneman, psychologist described: human reason is limited. People make decisions, and not to calculate the true value of an item, but with some relatively easy evaluation leads to judgment. For example, in the ice-cream, it is in fact just under ice-cream filled with discontent to decided to give different ice cream to pay much money (comments: people always believe your eyes, in fact the most unreliable visually. Savvy business owners are able to take advantage of this kind of mentality, to create "looks very close" effect).
Then come to see a Professor of tableware XI. For example, there is a shop are sold large sale, you see a set of tableware, 8 8 vegetable dish, soup and Dim Sum dishes, 8 x 24 pieces, each piece is intact, so how much money you are willing to pay to buy this set of tableware? if you see another package with 40-piece, of which 24 pieces and the just-mentioned exactly the same, but intact, and the set of tableware has eight eight cups and saucers, 2 cups and saucers in seven have been damaged. You are willing to pay for this set of tableware, how much? results show that only know one set of tableware, people willing to pay for the first set of tableware 33 u.s. dollars, but only to the second set of tableware to pay $ 24.
Although the second set of tableware more than the first set out six good cup and 1 good tea tray, people willing to pay money rather than less. Since the end of 24 and 31 is more or less, if you do not compare is very difficult to get attention, but the full set of dishware is intact or damaged, it has been very easy to judge. Look, it is easier to determine the basis of judgment, although this does not cost (comments: this is the concept of "integrity", a set of tableware, more pieces broke several have classified as inferior, people call it cheap rightly rather fragmented as watts total. However, vendors are also frequently use perception that fails will cheap psychological, such as a set of good furniture, five bucket Cabinet rub off block paint, off a genuine hand, can only be sold as chulipin. There is a sharp turn of merchants and their brains, the price has doubled, then lift up the big fork, following written on folded handle, in fact or in the original price, but the result was sold out. And whether there is a suspicion of fraud, but integrity concepts or get a very good application).
Gamblers always pockets empty--money and money is not the same
Money is money. The same is $ 100, is the work earned or lottery win, or on the road to pick, for consumers, should be the same. But the reality is otherwise. In General, you can put the hard-earned money to spend, but if you can't bear to be a windfall, may soon take off.
This proves that the person is another bounded rationality: money does not have the complete alternative, although the same is $ 100, but in the minds of consumers, namely the different background of money are two different accounts, earned money, and windfall is not the same. This is the University of Chicago Professor Saleh's "psychological account" concept.
For instance, tonight, are you going to Xin a concert. Fares are $ 200, you'll want to start out, you find that you have recently bought $ 200 worth of phone cards lost. You are also going to this concert? experiments show that the majority of the respondents still going Xin. But if the situation, suppose you yesterday took 200 Yuan to buy a ticket for the concert tonight. You'll want to start out, suddenly found you lost the vote. If you want to listen to a concert, you must spend $ 200 to buy tickets, you will go to? result is that most people say not to go.
You can come to think of it, the answer above is contradictory. Regardless of the loss of a calling card or concert tickets, all in all is lost value 200 Yuan, from loss of money, and there is no difference, there is no reason to lose the phone card is still going to the concert
And lost ticket and then not to go to. That is why, in people's minds, the calling card and concert ticket belongs to a different account, lost cards will not affect the concert where the account budget and expenditure, the majority of people still choose to Xin concert. However the lost concert tickets and later need to buy the tickets have been subsumed under the same account, so it looks as if you want to spend $ 400 was listening to a concert. People naturally feel that this is not cost-effective (punctuation: the different money under a different account, and that is why gamblers pocket money of truth forever: lost of course nothing to say, win, anyway, is something easier, who would like to save the banks? from the positive side, the concept of different accounts can help formulate financial planning. For example, a unit of employees, main income from wages — bank card issuance, bonus payments composition — cash, holidays and there are prizes each quarter, occasionally with a stock, youbi card a little extra money, then he can put your bank card to zero in the wage taken as a whole as a fixed deposit account, the bonus money for everyday expenses, quarterly prize insurance to cover the remainder of human feelings, extra money to tourism and leisure. Because of the psychological prior to these money each and every one of those to a different account, you will not have the idea of misappropriation).
Similar concepts can also help the Government in formulating policy. For example, a Government now wants to reduce taxes stimulate consumption. It can have two approaches: one is to cut taxes, reduced taxation levels directly; another is a drawback, and that is in a period of time after the return of part of the tax payers. The amount of money, reduction of 5% of the tax and the return of 5% of the tax are the same, but in the role of stimulating consumption but on quite different. People think that part of the tax reduction is himself would have it, is their earned, so increasing the consumption of power is not significant; however, the refund of tax on people like a windfall, stimulate people to add more consumption. Obviously, the Government is concerned, the refund policy of results than tax cuts.
Pain makes people remember — everyone is afraid of risk, everyone is adventurer
In the face of risk decisions, people will choose to avoid or go forward?
Let's do two experiments:
First, you have two options, A sure win $ 1000, B is 50% of the potential win 2000 Yuan, 50% of what the possibilities. Which one would you choose? most people select A person, this description is risk avoidance.
The second is that two choices, you must be A is a loss of $ 1000, B is the possibility you lose 50% of the 2000 Yuan, 50% chance you nothing. As a result, most people choose B, this shows they are risk appetite.
However, carefully examine the two questions above, you will find they are exactly the same. Suppose you now to win a $ 2000, $ 1000 so sure win, that is, from $ 2000 to win money in a sure loss of $ 1000, 50% win 2000 Yuan is also the possibility of having 50% without loss of money, 50% to anything is equivalent to 50% of the potential losses of $ 2000.
This is not difficult to come to the conclusion that people get in the face, often wary, not willing to take risks; and in the face of loss, everyone became adventurer. This is the prospect theory of Kahneman "," two "law".
"Prospect theory," another important "law" is: people on the loss and gain of sensitivity is different, the pain of the loss is much larger than get pleasure. Let's look at a Salman had raised the question: suppose you have a disease, one possibility might suddenly died, now there is a kind of medicine beyond the possibility of death can be reduced to zero, you are willing to spend much money to buy this drug? would you imagine assumes that your body is healthy, if now pharmaceutical company is looking for some people to test their newly developed a drug, the drug take back makes you a thousand possibilities in sudden death, so you require pharmaceutical companies spend much money to compensate you? in the experiment, many people will say that willing to cost money to buy drugs, but even if the pharmaceutical companies spend tens of thousands of dollars, they are not willing to participate in the discussion of experimental medicine. This is actually the loss aversion psychological mentality. Illness is cured diseases is a relatively insensitive, but itself healthy increase the probability of death is for people who find it difficult to accept losses, it is clear that the requirements of the loss compensation, to much higher than they are willing to pay for medical treatment.
However, loss and access is not absolute. People in the face of time to avoid risks, and time in the face of loss and loss risk preference and access is relative to the reference point. Change things in the evaluation of ideas that can change people's attitude towards risk.
Take a look at a Kahneman and Butterworth-famous experiment: assumes that the United States in the prevention of a rare disease outbreaks, it is expected that this disease will make 600 deaths. Now there are two options: use X, you can save 200 people; the use of Y, a third of likely save 600 people, two-thirds of a save. It is clear that saving is a given, so people do not want to risk the risk that the programme even more willing to select X.
Now look at another type description, there are two scenarios: 400 X programme makes: death and Y programme has 1/3 possibilities no one died, there is the possibility of 2/3 600 people all died. Death is a loss, so people are more inclined to take risks, options for Y.
In fact, the result is exactly the same. Saved 200 people equals death 400: l/3 might save 600 is equal to 1/3 may not one death. Thus, different expressions change only the reference point is a a death, or saved as a reference point, the result is a whole new ballgame.
Professor explains why, this is the new economics of microeconomics very important content a risk decision theory. Biography
Commission of Economics is a normative economics, also is to teach people what to do. The psychology, economics and more should be descriptive, it describes how people are actually doing. Risk theory evolution after three phases: from the earliest expectations theory, later of expected utility theory, to the latest prospect theory. Which prospect theory is one of the most powerful descriptive theory.
In General, the prospect theory has the following basic principles:
(A) the majority of people in the face of time is risk avoidance;
(B) the majority of people in the face of loss when risk preference;
(C) the loss ratio to be more sensitive.
Prospect theory has many applications. In addition to the examples on the interview, Professor XI on another application: how to announce the good news and bad news. How to publish messages or even affect the stock prices. If a company to its shareholders announced the good news, then in what manner the good news to make it have the most positive effect? if you want to publish is a bad news, the company that must do to make up less adverse effects of this message?
XI Professor referred to the earliest by Salman's four principles:
(A) If you have some good news for publication, you should separate them. For example, suppose that today you boss rewards you 1000 dollars, and you today in a department store draw when pumping in 1000 dollars, then you should put these two good news two pipes v. your wife, so she'll happy twice. According to the prospect theory, experience twice the pleasure obtained degree and to greater than two get together to experience the total level of pleasure.
(B) If you have some bad news to announce, you should put them together in a publication. For example, if you have a purse l000 dollars lost, accidentally put your wife's 1000 dollars of cell phone broke, so you should put the two together to tell her the bad news. Because according to prospect theory, two losses combine the pain to experience this respectively less than twice the pain of loss.
(C) If you have a big good news and a bit of bad news that should make the message with others. In that case, the pains of the bad news is good news to the dilution, the negative effect is much smaller.
(D) If you have a big bad news and a little good news should promulgate these two messages. So, good news bad news would not be suffering the flow not, people can enjoy good news.
Professor XI, not only the individual can apply these principles to influence their concerns were pleased with the level, the company also can use these principles affect the stock holders of investment behavior.
Everyone has a happy — maximize people's happiness
Want to swap a higher salary? Of course want to. Why pursue more wage? to life richer. In order to live a richer?... ...
After all, people eventually seek is the happiness of life. Instead of having more money. Because, from the "utility maximization", on the person's largest utility is wealth, but happiness itself.
Traditional economics that increase people's wealth is to raise awareness of happiness levels in the most effective means. But Professor XI wealth can bring happiness is only a very small one, people are happy, to a large extent depend on a lot and definitely factors not related to wealth. For example, in the past decades, the United States GDP per capita over a few times, but many studies found that people's happiness and there is no significant change in the pressure increases. This produces a very interesting question: we spend so much energy and resources to increase the wealth of the whole society, but people's happiness but nothing changes. This is why?
XI Professor noted that in the end is not happiness depends on many factors not related to absolute wealth. In the predecessors on the basis of research, the development of a what why Professor is a new, rigorous theory studying how to maximize people's happiness. And economics professor, XI corresponds to the learning of science called "happiness." This theory: our ultimate goal is to maximize wealth, but to maximize people's happiness.
So in addition to the absolute wealth, what other factors affecting our happiness?
Time of comparison and social comparison can bring happiness to people. For example, you recently in Shanghai's downtown has bought a Villa, you feel very happy. But in fact you feel happy and only a small part is because you live in this House you, more because of the comparison. From the time of comparison, if you lived in the attic, so now you live Villa will feel very happy. If you lived in a garden Villa, so you won't feel wonderful. From social comparison, if you and the people around you, your friends and colleagues found that when compared to other people also live in the ordinary public housing, and you now have your own villa, you will certainly be very happy. If the people around you now live in a better place, then you even live in Villa feel comfortable, you will not be very happy.
Another source of happiness is the pulse of change. If a person has been living a good life and nothing changed, he is never better than most people happy. In other words, comfort and happiness. But if a person lives is not particularly high, but he now and then there will be some downs, such as tourism, adventure, the pulse of happiness can make people feel more happy (punctuation: United States person is the richest in the world, but according to the survey Europeans generally than United States people happy, though Europeans live House small than United States persons, open
Car than in the United States were small, but they save money for a holiday. Different ways of life, resulting in a different sense of well-being. This is a very good lessons, companies may wish to encourage employees to take advantage of the annual leave, staff feel happy at the same time, the company's identity will also be upgrading).
By the same token in the Member's remuneration is very useful. Assume that you are the CEO of a company, you have two paid employees paid way: one way is that you can give employees pay fixed salary; Alternatively you can give employees a relatively low number of wages, but to give them some rewards every now and then. Objectively speaking, your company in the first way of spending more money, but the professor that you XI of the Union in the second way is more pleased, but this time the company spends money also fewer (punctuation: of course, if your company has now been taken is similar to the first payment of the fixed salary, so now you want to convert to a second payment method is too late, because lower wages are always let staff very unhappy). We cannot be denied this reality: the pursuit of wealth is the human instinct. Everyone wants their own wallets and more drum, everyone wants to have one day to become a millionaire.
But we also can't avoid the fact that the total amount of community resources are limited, at least at this stage, we do not expect everyone to become rich. Wealth and vulnerable groups of the gap between rich and poor is not likely to disappear completely.
In this sense, "the ultimate goal is to maximize the" happiness, as we open the thesis of a fan of the new window. Absolute wealth gap cannot be filled in, and well-being is likely to be owned by each person. We are concerned about the wealth of life and hope to increase the wealth, well-being is also increasing. We are equally concerned about vulnerable groups hope that each of the ordinary people have happiness. Increase the well-being of society as a whole, it is the responsibility of the Government, it should become community members spontaneous pursuit. Of course, social progress, satisfaction and dissatisfaction is relative, not the whole, the new economics can lead people to see the good side of things, not the bad side to zoom in, to let people access to well-being.
Report:
The prospect theory of Kahneman and
By the Rector, Kahneman because "will come from the field of psychological study on comprehensive insight in the economy, particularly in uncertain situations human judgment and decision-making made outstanding contributions to" pick of the 2002 Nobel Prize laureate.
For a long time, Orthodox economics has a "rational man" as the theoretical foundation, through their sophisticated mathematical model to build up a perfect theoretical system. While Professor Kahneman et al. behavioral economics research from empirical, from one's own mental characteristics, behavior, go to reveal the impact behavior of irrational psychological factors, its targeted Orthodox economics a logical basis for a rational people assume.
In fact, as early as the 1950s people start of behavioral economics, but early studies scattered. Until the 1970s, only by Kahneman and Butterworth base in this area was extensive and systematic research. Behavioral economics emphasizes that people's behavior is not only driven by interests, but also from a variety of psychological factors. Prospect theory to psychology and Economics study effectively, and reveals the uncertainty of the decision-making mechanism, has opened up a whole new field of research. In this sense, the award-winning Kahneman, it is possible to change the future direction of development of economics.
