Keyword: enterprise decision management staff intelligence management companies
You better than your staff smarter? now that people are expecting more than affiliate numerous leaders, we defer to think so. So, if you are taller than each employee is smarter, and can infer your collective than employees are also smarter? if your answer is "Yes", the conclusions are only two: either you too arrogant, either you know nothing about collective intelligence.
As Thoreau wiki (James Surowiecki), in its wisdom of the Group (The Wisdom of Crowds) pointed out in his book: in appropriate conditions, collective in looking for solutions, or even predict future results are proven to have extraordinary abilities. Think about the Iowa electronic markets (IEM) in the case. From 1988 to 2000, the United States presidential election, on the eve of the election of IEM's prediction and the actual results of the average deviation of only 1.37%, has been doing professional company than opinion polls also accurate. IEM forecast is an open, free participation in the survey, approximately 700 participants, of which there is no political leaders, experts pollees, critic or political analysts to determine the final result.
In most people's eyes, let decision markets (market, the decision also forecasts market – Editor's note) to control the power of the company's major policy decisions are ridiculous messy, but it is not far-fetched. In the late 1990s, California Institute of technology Economist plaute (Charles R. Plott) and Chen (Chen Kay-Yut) at Hewlett-Packard Company established a trading market to forecast the sales of the printer. How?, in the first test, the results of the trading market and actual sales volume difference of 6 percentage points, compared to HP's official forecast and actual sales are poor 13 percentage points. In the next 3 years, this pilot trading markets 75% of the forecast results are better than the company's official forecast accuracy. In view of these successful experiences, Hewlett Packard Company take this test to different departments, even without the next sector of the market's prediction results incorporated into the regular prediction.
We can imagine that not only the Hewlett-Packard Company can prove that the trade market forecasts than management's analysis also accurate. Siemens also found the same facts. It established an internal market to forecast whether finish on a major project. Management's forecast is available, exchange market forecast is not. Proven Siemens was unable to finish the project.
Intel has also established a pilot market used to provision the productivity, results indicate that basic capacity is 100% utilization. Even pure fun Internet game of "Hollywood Stock Exchange" and also be able to prove that the trade market than any other professional bodies are more accurately predict box office revenue. So, obviously, trading markets to open collective wisdom, and using it to forecast future results and develop the best solution.
But we can exploit collective intelligence to drive innovation? Let's take a look at the former junk bonds genius and Wall Street financial criminals Milken (Michael Milken) examples. Milken "Prostate Cancer Foundation (PCF) is the world's largest prostate cancer study of private sponsors. But changed the status of cancer research is not the Milken strong financial strength, but is he pursuing cooperation method. Milken requires scientists to share research results, which revolutionized the study of prostate cancer. Previously, the researchers take several months or years to apply for funding, and Milken Foundation will quickly approve the application, but comes with an important requirement — in PCF annual meeting, the Fund use would have to participate in the meeting of scientists to share research results.
At first, many researchers to share their research results are hesitant. In the first year (1993), the Foundation has received only 85 applications. But later on, more and more researchers accept the conditions of the Milken. When you see the accept PCF-sponsored project began to bear fruit, the scientific community has also supported this approach.
PCF Foundation established in the beginning only owns 2.3 billion u.s. dollars of funds, and the large pharmaceutical companies huge amounts of research and development budget is simply one of cattle than wool. However, in 2004, the PCF has sponsored more than 1,000 research projects, including use of Velcade, Zometa, GVAX and Omnitarg, drug treatment methods. PCF Foundation successfully cancer research on collective wisdom gathered together to create positive results.
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